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By Steven Mosher, LifeSiteNews, March 16, 2020

Steven W. Mosher @StevenWMosher is the President of the Population Research Institute and the author of Bully of Asia: Why China’s Dream is the New Threat to World Order.  

While the trajectory of the epidemic here is still unknown, the U.S. is not Italy, South Korea (or China)


March 16, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) – I have heard in the past couple of days a couple of alarming projections about how many Chinese coronavirus cases we have in the country, and also about the number of people who will supposedly die as a result.  But I have to tell you that the numbers given in these scary scenarios simply don’t add up.

We have, for example, the Republican governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, going on national television and claiming that because of “community spreading” the number of coronavirus cases may be as many as 100,000 in his state alone.  Although neither he nor his Director of Medical Services explained how they arrived at this astonishing number, it was probably the result of an exponential equation that assumed that every infected person spread the disease to 2.6 others within a few days after showing symptoms of the disease.

A Rate of Infection (ROI) of between 2 and 3 is what the CDC is currently using to track the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.  At an ROI of 2.6—which is an extraordinarily high ROI—it would take only a dozen “transmissions” from Patient Zero to reach 100,000 cases.  ….

Read more here:  https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/why-coronavirus-will-not-take-hold-in-america-like-it-did-in-italy-and-south-korea