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Whenever I express pessimism about the future of Catholicism in the United States, something I frequently do, somebody is sure to remind me of Matthew 16:18, where Jesus says to Peter, “Thou art Peter; and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.”
And so I am forced to remind the person who thus objects to my pessimism: “Yes, but please note that Jesus did not say that the American gates of hell will not prevail; nor the European gates; nor Canadian; nor Australian; and so on.”
At the moment it looks like the gates of hell in the United States and these other places are doing very well. In these places the Catholic Church grows weaker and weaker; it more and more fades away.
The Catholic religion has a long history of fading away in various places. Once upon a time, the Catholic/Orthodox faith dominated the Middle East and North Africa. Beginning in the seventh century it began to disappear in the face of the Islamic advance.
Once upon a time, there was there was a common Christianity that later broke up into a Western (Catholic) half and an Eastern (Orthodox) half, the latter half rejecting Rome and the papacy.
Once upon a time, the Church of Rome dominated all of Western Europe and most of Central Europe. Then came the Protestant Reformation, with the result that England, Scotland, Holland, the Scandinavian countries, and much of northern Germany repudiated Rome and the popes.
In the last half century or so (ever since the Second Vatican Council), Catholicism has collapsed in many places, even those places where it had long seemed to be an essential mark of national identity. When I say that I am thinking especially of two places: Quebec and the Republic of Ireland. For centuries they were the most Catholic places in the world. But look at them today.
The Province of Quebec is littered with impressive old buildings that used to be churches or seminaries or rectories or convents; a greatly shrunken religion no longer needs them for those old uses. Fortunately, the anti-Catholic government of the province has found new, secular uses for many of these fine old structures.
The Catholicism of the Irish Republic has collapsed more recently yet just as thoroughly. Not only have the Irish, by a roughly two-to-one majority in a national referendum, decided to amend their constitution so as to get rid of its anti-abortion provision; but now they are on the verge of making abortion a free-of-charge service and of requiring Catholic hospitals to provide that service.
The collapse of Catholicism in places like Quebec and Ireland has of course been radically different from earlier collapses in that the Quebecois and the Irish did not, in abandoning Catholicism, turn Muslim or Protestant. Instead, they have become atheists or near-atheists.
https://www.thecatholicthing.org/2018/12/28/in-a-pessimistic-mood/