The consensus that emerged among pollsters and pundits across the political spectrum after RFK Jr.’s shock endorsement of Donald Trump was that it would have little effect on the outcome. But does that consensus reflect the same groupthink that missed the Trump surprise in 2016?

The editorial board of The Wall Street Journal warned that while Kennedy’s backing could possibly help Trump marginally in battleground states, “the price could be high if it includes putting Mr. Kennedy in a second Trump Administration,” concluding that “Mr. Trump’s best response is to thank RFK Jr. for his support, make no promises about the future, and by all means avoid joint campaign appearances” to avoid the taint of association with his fringe positions. …

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