Cuba on the Cusp: Getting the Story Right This Time, by Peter C. Earle

There is a growing, if tentative, sense that Cuba may be approaching an inflection point. Rapidly mounting economic stress owing to losing its Venezuelan oil lifeline, persistent shortages, outward migration, and quiet policy experimentation suggest that the island could rapidly begin moving, however unevenly, toward more market-oriented arrangements in the months ahead. These shifts may not resemble a clean “transition” in the textbook sense. They may come piecemeal: expanded private enterprise here, currency reform there, selective liberalization of trade or investment. But the direction of travel matters more than the speed. After decades of rigid central planning, even incremental movement toward markets would mark a profound change.